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Expert Elicitation and the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases

Researchers often formally elicit the views of subject-matter experts to help clarify consensus on complex or uncertain topics. This technique, known as expert elicitation, can be used to improve forecasts and inform the assumptions behind predictive models, among other applications. Several expert elicitations published in recent years offer useful insights on the dynamics and impacts of climate change.

The Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases can use the findings from expert elicitations to improve the U.S. federal government’s social cost of greenhouse gas estimates, which are used in regulatory cost-benefit analysis and other policy contexts. Our report highlights several component updates, incorporating data from expert elicitations, that the Working Group should consider during its current update of the social cost of greenhouse gas estimates.